UAE Mortgage Rates, November 2026: On Hold, but Markets Bet on a December Rise

Last Wednesday, two of the twelve people who vote on US interest rates wanted to raise them. They lost, 10 votes to 2, so rates stayed where they were, and a few hours later the Central Bank of the UAE kept its own rate where it was too. If you only read the headlines, nothing happened. But look underneath and the picture for UAE borrowers is less calm. EIBOR, the rate most variable mortgages follow, hit its highest level of the year in October. And by the weekend, markets were putting the chance of a rate rise on 9 December at close to three in four.

This update covers what was decided, what EIBOR did in October, what that has done to monthly payments since January, where bank rates sit in November, and what to do in the five weeks before the next decision.

What happened on 28 October?

The Federal Reserve's statement on 28 October kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, where it has been since the quarter-point rise on 16 September. The statement said inflation remains elevated. The vote was 10 to 2, and the two who disagreed, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, both wanted to raise rates by a quarter point at this meeting.

The UAE followed within hours. In its press release dated 28 October, the Central Bank of the UAE kept its Base Rate, the rate on its Overnight Deposit Facility, at 3.9%, after the Fed left its interest rate on reserve balances unchanged. Borrowing from the Central Bank through its standing credit facilities stays at 50 basis points above the Base Rate.

The reason the two move together is the currency. The dirham is pegged to the US dollar, and the Central Bank of the UAE says its Base Rate is anchored to the Fed's interest rate on reserve balances. In practice, the Fed's calendar is the UAE's calendar. If you want the background on how that works, our preview of the October decision explains it step by step.

A 10 to 2 vote to hold is not the same as a calm vote to hold. When two voters want a rise, it tells you the debate inside the Fed is about whether to raise rates, not whether to cut them.

What did EIBOR do in October?

The Central Bank does not set mortgage rates directly. Most variable mortgages are priced at EIBOR, the Emirates Interbank Offered Rate, plus a margin set by the bank, and the Central Bank publishes EIBOR every working day. October was a choppy month:

Central Bank of the UAE published rates, rounded to two decimal places. 30 October was the last working day of the month.

3-month EIBOR started October at 4.39%, climbed to 4.45% on 22 October, the highest reading of 2026, then fell to 4.15% on 26 October before ending the month at 4.34%. Across the month it averaged 4.30%. So October did not bring another jump like September's, but it did not bring any relief either: the rate most mortgages follow is still sitting near the top of its range for the year.

The longer terms are worth a look too. 1-year EIBOR, at 4.87%, is more than half a point above 3-month EIBOR. Banks only charge more to lend for a year than for three months when they expect short-term rates to be higher over that year, so the market is pricing in more rises, not cuts. Our EIBOR rates page shows every daily fixing since January 2025.

How much more is a variable mortgage costing than in January?

Because the changes came a few basis points at a time, it is easy to miss how far they have added up. Here is 3-month EIBOR at the end of each month this year, and what a new AED 1.5M variable mortgage at EIBOR plus a 1.5% margin, over 25 years, would cost at that rate:

3-month EIBOR on the last working day of each month, from the Central Bank of the UAE. Payments are our calculations on a new AED 1.5M loan over 300 months, rounded. A real loan resets on its own dates, usually every three months, so your payment follows these figures with a delay.

The lowest 3-month EIBOR this year was 3.44% on 7 January. At that rate, the same loan would cost about AED 8,713 a month. At the end of October it costs about AED 9,519. That is about AED 805 a month more, or close to AED 9,700 a year, for exactly the same home and the same loan.

The rise also cuts how much a buyer can borrow. Central Bank rules make banks test affordability at a higher rate than the one you will actually pay. Take an expat earning AED 25,000 a month, with no other debts and a 25-year term, tested at 2 points above EIBOR plus 1.5%. At January's low, that test supports a loan of about AED 1.78M. At October's close, it supports about AED 1.64M. That is roughly AED 137,000 less borrowing power for the same salary. Each bank applies its own test, so treat this as an illustration, but the direction is the same everywhere. Our salary guide explains how the test works.

Where do bank rates sit in November?

Here is the surprising part. We checked the mortgage pages of the UAE banks that publish their rates on 2 November 2026, and headline fixed rates have not moved since our October update:

• 1 to 3 years fixed: from 3.99%, published by two large UAE banks (one of them an Islamic bank, where it is a profit rate).
• 5 years fixed: from 4.19%.
• Another large bank's published fixed rate: 4.05% for 1, 2, 3 or 5 years.
• Variable rates: 3-month EIBOR plus published margins between 0.99% and 1.89%, which works out at about 5.33% to 6.23% at today's EIBOR.

Read that again: a fixed rate of 3.99% is below 3-month EIBOR itself, at 4.34%, before the bank adds a single basis point of margin. Banks can offer this because the fixed rate only lasts one to five years. After that, the loan moves to EIBOR plus a margin for the rest of the term, and that is where they make it back. Even so, a fixed rate below the benchmark is not something banks keep on offer forever, especially if rates rise again in December. These rates usually come with conditions, such as moving your salary to the bank, and they depend on your profile.

On an AED 1.5M loan over 25 years, the gap is wide:

• Fixed at 3.99%: about AED 7,909 a month.
• Variable at EIBOR + 0.99% (5.33% today): about AED 9,060 a month.
• Variable at EIBOR + 1.5% (5.84% today): about AED 9,519 a month.

That is about AED 1,150 to AED 1,610 a month cheaper on the fixed rate, today. Our fixed vs variable guide covers the trade-offs in full.

Will UAE rates rise in December?

Nobody knows for certain, and anyone who tells you otherwise is guessing. But three signals all point the same way.

1. Market pricing. On 1 November, RateProbability put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rise on 9 December at about 73%, and priced roughly two to three rises over the next 12 months. Market pricing changes every day, so treat this as a snapshot, not a forecast.
2. The Fed's own projections. In September, the median Fed official expected the federal funds rate to end 2026 at 4.1%, above today's range of 3.75% to 4.00%. That implies one more quarter-point rise this year. New projections come out with the December decision.
3. The vote. Two members wanted a rise in October already. It only takes a few more to change their minds.

If the Fed does raise rates on 9 December, the Central Bank of the UAE has matched the Fed on the same day at its recent decisions, including 16 September and 28 October, so expect the Base Rate to go from 3.90% to 4.15%. EIBOR would likely move up with it. On a variable AED 1.5M loan at EIBOR plus 1.5%, a quarter-point rise adds about AED 229 a month. On every AED 1M borrowed, it is about AED 153 a month.

What should you do if you are on a variable rate?

Your payment changes on the reset dates in your loan agreement, usually every three months, based on EIBOR at that time. So check two things now: your margin, and your next reset date. If your next reset falls after 9 December, it will pick up whatever EIBOR does after the decision.

Then ask whether a fixed rate makes sense for you. On an AED 1.5M loan, moving from 5.84% to 3.99% would cut the payment by about AED 1,610 a month for as long as the fixed period lasts. Against that, count the costs of switching: an early settlement fee, which Central Bank rules cap at 1% of the outstanding balance or AED 10,000, whichever is less; the new bank's processing fee, unless it is waived; valuation; and, in Dubai, mortgage registration of 0.25% of the loan plus AED 290. Ask your own bank first whether it will move you to a fixed rate, since that can avoid some of these costs. Our refinancing guide walks through the process.

What if your fixed rate ends in the next six months?

This is where the rise this year bites hardest. Take an AED 1.5M loan over 25 years at 3.99%, fixed for three years. When the fixed period ends, the balance is about AED 1.39M. If it then moves to EIBOR plus 1.5%, 5.84% at today's EIBOR, the payment goes from about AED 7,909 to about AED 9,354 a month, roughly AED 1,445 more. Do nothing, and that happens automatically.

1. Find your end date and your margin in your offer letter.
2. Start comparing about three months before the end date. A switch to another bank takes time, and starting early keeps you from rolling onto the higher rate by default.
3. Ask your bank for a new fixed rate, then compare it with what other banks would offer on the same loan.

What if you are buying now?

Get pre-approved before you make an offer, and if you already have a pre-approval, ask the bank to confirm that the amount and the rate still stand. As shown above, the same salary supports less borrowing than it did in January, and another rise in December would trim it again. The other rules have not changed: total monthly debt repayments of up to 50% of your income, a cap of 7 years' income for expats and 8 years for UAE nationals, and a maximum loan of 80% of the price for an expat's first home under AED 5M, or 85% for UAE nationals.

When you compare offers, look past the headline rate. The rate after the fixed period is what you will pay for most of the loan, so it matters as much as the fixed rate itself. Our eligibility calculator shows what your own salary and debts leave room for.

What could change this picture?

Rates do not only go one way. The Fed held in October, and the decision in December will depend on the US inflation and jobs data that comes out before then. If inflation cools, the chance of a rise could fall quickly, and EIBOR has already shown it can drop sharply in a few days, as it did from 4.45% to 4.15% between 22 and 26 October. Banks can also change their advertised rates at any time, in either direction.

What has not changed is the basic trade. A fixed rate below 4% buys you certainty for one to five years; a variable rate gives you flexibility but follows EIBOR, which is close to its highest level this year. If a rate you have been offered works for your budget, there is little to gain from waiting to see what 9 December brings. We will cover the December decision, and what it means for your payments, in our next update. For the run-up to this point, see our October update and September update.